Maplewood, Minnesota 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

356
FXUS63 KMPX 191142
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
642 AM CDT Sat Jul 19 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Last remaining showers/thunderstorms over western WI to
  diminish this morning, followed by dry and mild weather for
  the rest of the weekend.

- More active weather expected for next week with multiple
  chances for showers/thunderstorms.

- Warm and humid starting Tuesday, including heat index values
  rising to the low 90s.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 410 AM CDT Sat Jul 19 2025

Surface analysis early this morning pins a surface low far
southern MN with a southwestward trailing cold front extending
into the central Plains and a leading warm front nudging into
southern WI. Aloft, generally zonal flow exists from the
Northern Rockies through the Great Lakes, with a shortwave
trough axis dropping southeast from south-central Canada across
MN/WI.

As this trough continues to shift southeast, this will push the
low further east into the Great Lakes, dragging the last
vestiges of this morning`s showers and thunderstorms over
western WI off to the east. Behind this system, high pressure
from southwestern Canada will slowly slide into the region
through the weekend, resulting in a dry and seasonably mild
weekend with comfortable temperature and humidity levels.

Meanwhile, cyclogenesis over the northern Rockies over the
weekend will produce a low pressure center over eastern MT. In
addition, a cold front will drop southeast from western Canada.
These features will advect increased moisture into the region
starting on Monday as the pattern becomes more active. Multiple
frontal boundaries will arrive into the north-central CONUS for
early next week, bringing multiple chances for
showers/thunderstorms back to the region for much of next week.
No one day overly stands out more than others for precipitation
chances, but the frontal boundaries along with the arrival of a
potent longwave trough from the PacNW coincide over our region
Tuesday, thus arguably making Tuesday the day with the highest
potential all week for organized showers/thunderstorms.

However, Tuesday is also the starting point for the return of
summer-like temperatures and humidity levels to the region,
which will then remain in place through the remainder of next
week. Highs will climb to the mid 80s while dewpoints reach the
lower 70s, potentially producing heat index values into the
lower 90s for multiple days next week.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 637 AM CDT Sat Jul 19 2025

Showers/thunderstorms have moved off to the south and east, thus
no longer a hazard for any WFO MPX TAF sites. That said,
plentiful low level moisture working within the subsidence in
the wake of the precip is taking form as IFR-or-lower
ceilings/visibilities. These conditions have already developed
over the MN TAF sites and will soon do so over the WI sites, and
will last through late morning and possibly early afternoon.
Fairly quick improvement is expected by mid-to-late afternoon,
with VFR conditions prevailing this evening through Sunday
morning (though there is a chance of patchy fog near and north
of I-94 early Sunday morning). Winds will generally come from
the north through this duration with speeds 10kts or less.

KMSP...Ceilings will continue to drop this morning, likely to
IFR shortly after initialization, and continue as such through
late morning. Improvement to MVFR is expected during the
afternoon hours, with VFR expected by this evening.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
MON...Mainly VFR. Slight chc A.M. MVFR/SHRA. Wind SE 10-15 kts.
TUE...Mainly VFR. Chc MVFR/SHRA/TSRA. Wind S 10-15 kts.
WED...Mainly VFR. Chc MVFR/SHRA/TSRA. Wind SW 5-10 kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JPC
AVIATION...JPC